DELIVERY RISK CALCULATOR
See beyond the average. Model the full probability distribution of your delivery timeline.
Traditional velocity-based estimates produce a single number — the P50. Half the time you'll miss it. This tool runs a Monte Carlo simulation across 10,000 scenarios to show you the full risk tail: where your project is likely to land, and how far it could go.
Advanced — adjust uncertainty (CoV)
The Coefficient of Variation (CoV) measures how spread out your scope uncertainty is relative to your estimate. A CoV of 0 means perfect certainty; a CoV of 1.0 means the standard deviation equals the mean — a very wide distribution. Each maturity stage sets a sensible default; adjust here if you have a stronger intuition about your team's estimation accuracy.